Infection vs Fatality of COVID-19 in New York State; Effects of Demographics and Poor Air Quality

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a global impact that has been unevenly distributed among and even within countries. Multiple demographic and environmental factors have been associated with the risk of COVID-19 spread and fatality, including age, gender, ethnicity, poverty, and air quality among others. However, specific contributions of these factors are yet to be understood. Here, we attempted to explain the variability in infection, death, and fatality rates by understanding the contributions of a few selected factors. We compared the incidence of COVID-19 in New York State (NYS) counties during the first wave of infection and analyzed how different demographic and environmental variables associate with the variation observed across the counties. We observed that infection and death rates, two important COVID-19 metrics, to be highly correlated with both being highest in counties located near New York City, considered as one of the epicenters of the infection in the US. In contrast, disease fatality was found to be highest in a different set of counties despite registering a low infection rate. To investigate this apparent discrepancy, we divided the counties into three clusters based on COVID-19 infection, death, or fatality, and compared the differences in the demographic and environmental variables such as ethnicity, age, population density, poverty, temperature, and air quality in each of these clusters. Furthermore, a regression model built on this data reveals PM2.5 and distance from the epicenter are significant risk factors for infection, while disease fatality has a strong association with age and PM2.5. Our results demonstrate that for the NYS, demographic components distinctly associate with specific aspects of COVID-19 burden and also highlight the detrimental impact of poor air quality. These results could help design and direct location-specific control and mitigation strategies.